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@@ -85,23 +85,6 @@ Let's look at new vs total number of cases for some cities:
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### Algorithms and Techniques
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### Algorithm steps:
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1. Grouping:
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- Removed unnecessary columns
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- Grouped the data by State
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2. Fit the model.
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- Total Cases: Algorithm based on `curve_fit using Logistic Function f(x), defined below. Which will fit f(x) curve to total number of COVID-19 cases with in a 95% confidence.
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> f(x) = capacity / (1 + e^-k*(x - midpoint) )
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- Total New: Algorithm based on `curve_fit using Gaussian Function g(x), defined below. Which will fit g(x) curve to new cases of COVID-19 with in a 95% confidence.
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> f(x) = a * e^(-0.5 * ((x-μ)/σ)**2)
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- Outputs: optimal parameters for a given function
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3. Predictions:
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- The `forecast_curve` takes `curve_fit` models which provides optimal parameters for a given function (step 2), and applies it to a new independent variable based on observations (cases) to forecast.
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- outputs: Graph of actual vs forecast
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### Benchmark
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### Implementation
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Once the data cleaning processors I implemented two models two models:
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1. Benchmark which which was designed by
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1. Benchmark which which was designed in R by The University of Melbourne
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2. My Model for which I will use
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@@ -501,7 +485,7 @@ A natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic
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