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‎Prologue/Prologue.ipynb‎

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{
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"metadata": {
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"name": "",
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"signature": "sha256:62fd89831f0c4c843acfa46500442b8f03633557a3eb031bfc25c2ac6d5ae097"
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"signature": "sha256:b6036a1fe9ca702248f7aeaa42bfb82104173fea5516262142347061ae35f54b"
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"* [**\u307e\u3048\u304c\u304d\uff1a**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb) \u306a\u305c\u3084\u308b\u3079\u304d\u304b\uff0e\n",
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"* [\u307e\u3048\u304c\u304d](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/tttamaki/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/blob/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb)\uff08[\u539f\u6587](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb)\uff09\uff1a\u306a\u305c\u3084\u308b\u3079\u304d\u304b\uff0e\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Prologue:**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb) Why we do it.\n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"* [\u7b2c1\u7ae0\uff1a\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u5165\u9580](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/tttamaki/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1_Introduction.ipynb)\uff08[\u539f\u6587](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1_Introduction.ipynb)\uff09\uff1a\n",
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" \u30d9\u30a4\u30b9\u63a8\u5b9a\u306e\u8003\u3048\u65b9\u3068\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u3084\u308a\u65b9\u306e\u5165\u9580\uff0e\u300c\u78ba\u7387\u30d7\u30ed\u30b0\u30e9\u30df\u30f3\u30b0\u3063\u3066\u4f55\uff1f\u300d\u306b\u3082\u7b54\u3048\u308b\uff0e\u4f8b\u984c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\n",
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" - \u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u30e1\u30c3\u30bb\u30fc\u30b8\u304b\u3089\u4eba\u306e\u884c\u52d5\u306e\u5909\u5316\u3092\u63a8\u8ad6\u3059\u308b\n",
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" \n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1_Introduction.ipynb)\n",
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" Introduction to the philosophy and practice of Bayesian methods and answering the question \"What is probabilistic programming?\" Examples include:\n",
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" - Inferring human behaviour changes from text message rates.\n",
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" \n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"* [\u7b2c2\u7ae0\uff1a\u3082\u3046\u5c11\u3057PyMC\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/tttamaki/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/MorePyMC.ipynb)\uff08[\u539f\u6587](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/MorePyMC.ipynb)\uff09\uff1a\n",
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" PyMC\u30e9\u30a4\u30d6\u30e9\u30ea\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\uff0c\u4f8b\u984c\u3092\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u3069\u3046\u3084\u3063\u3066\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u308c\u3070\u3088\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff1f\u3000\u4f8b\u984c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\uff0e\n",
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" - \u30ab\u30f3\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u3057\u305f\u5b66\u751f\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\uff0ewhile avoiding liars.\n",
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" - \u30b9\u30da\u30fc\u30b9\u30b7\u30e3\u30c8\u30eb\u30c1\u30e3\u30ec\u30f3\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\u53f7\u306e\u60b2\u5287\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/MorePyMC.ipynb)\n",
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" We explore modeling Bayesian problems using Python's PyMC library through examples. How do we create Bayesian models? Examples include:\n",
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" - Detecting the frequency of cheating students, while avoiding liars.\n",
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" - Calculating probabilities of the Challenger space-shuttle disaster.\n",
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" \n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"* [\u7b2c3\u7ae0\uff1aMCMC\u306e\u6249\u3092\u958b\u304f](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/tttamaki/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/IntroMCMC.ipynb)\uff08[\u539f\u6587](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/IntroMCMC.ipynb)\uff09\uff1a\n",
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" MCMC\u3092\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u6271\u3046\u306e\u304b\u3068\uff0c\u305d\u308c\u3092\u8a3a\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u8b70\u8ad6\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u4f8b\u984c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\uff0e\n",
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" - \u6df7\u5408\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u30bf\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Chapter 3: Opening the Black Box of MCMC**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/IntroMCMC.ipynb)\n",
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" We discuss how MCMC operates and diagnostic tools. Examples include:\n",
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" - Bayesian clustering with mixture models\n",
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" \n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"* [\u7b2c4\u7ae0\uff1a\u8a9e\u3089\u308c\u306c\u5049\u5927\u306a\u5b9a\u7406](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/tttamaki/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/LawOfLargeNumbers.ipynb)\uff08[\u539f\u6587](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/LawOfLargeNumbers.ipynb)\uff09\n",
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" \u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u6709\u7528\u3067\uff0c\u304b\u3064\u5371\u967a\u306a\u5b9a\u7406\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0c\u5927\u6570\u306e\u6cd5\u5247\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u4f8b\u984c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\n",
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" - Exploring a Kaggle dataset and the pitfalls of naive analysis\n",
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" - How to sort Reddit comments from best to worst (not as easy as you think)\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Chapter 4: The Greatest Theorem Never Told**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/LawOfLargeNumbers.ipynb)\n",
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" We explore an incredibly useful, and dangerous, theorem: The Law of Large Numbers. Examples include:\n",
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" - Exploring a Kaggle dataset and the pitfalls of naive analysis\n",
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" - How to sort Reddit comments from best to worst (not as easy as you think)\n",
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" \n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"* [\u7b2c5\u7ae0\uff1a\u624b\u8db3\u3092\u5931\u3046\u640d\u5931\u306f\uff1f]()\n",
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"\uff08[\u539f\u6587](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter5_LossFunctions/LossFunctions.ipynb)\uff09\uff1a\n",
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" \u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u640d\u5931\u95a2\u6570\u3068\uff0c\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u63a8\u5b9a\u3067\u3069\u3046\u3084\u3063\u3066\u4f7f\u3046\u306e\u304b\u3092\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u4f8b\u984c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\n",
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" - Solving the Price is Right's Showdown\n",
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" - Optimizing financial predictions\n",
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" - Winning solution to the Kaggle Dark World's competition.\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Chapter 5: Would you rather loss an arm or a leg?**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter5_LossFunctions/LossFunctions.ipynb)\n",
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" The introduction of Loss functions and their (awesome) use in Bayesian methods. Examples include:\n",
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" - Solving the Price is Right's Showdown\n",
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" - Optimizing financial predictions\n",
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" - Winning solution to the Kaggle Dark World's competition.\n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"* [\u7b2c6\u7ae0\uff1a**Chapter 6: Getting our *prior*-ities straight**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter6_Priorities/Priors.ipynb)\n",
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" \u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u6700\u3082\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u7ae0\uff0e\u30a8\u30ad\u30b9\u30d1\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u610f\u898b\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\u8cea\u554f\u306b\u7b54\u3048\u308b\u306b\u306f\uff0e\u4f8b\u984c\u306b\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3082\u306e\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\n",
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" - \u591a\u8155\u30d0\u30f3\u30c7\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u3068\u30d9\u30a4\u30ba\u30d0\u30f3\u30c7\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u89e3\n",
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" - \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u3068\u4e8b\u524d\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306f\uff1f\n",
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" - estimating financial unknowns using expert priors.\n",
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" \n",
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"<!--\n",
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"* [**Chapter 6: Getting our *prior*-ities straight**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter6_Priorities/Priors.ipynb)\n",
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" Probably the most important chapter. We draw on expert opinions to answer questions. Examples include:\n",
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" - Multi-Armed Bandits and the Bayesian Bandit solution.\n",
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" - what is the relationship between data sample size and prior?\n",
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" - estimating financial unknowns using expert priors.\n",
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"\n",
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" We explore useful tips to be objective in analysis, and common pitfalls of priors. \n",
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" \n",
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"* **Chapter X1: Bayesian Markov Models**\n",
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"* **Chapter X4: Troubleshooting and debugging**\n",
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"\n",
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"\n",
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"**\u3082\u3063\u3068PyMC\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u77e5\u308a\u305f\u3044\u6642\u306b\u306f**\n",
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"\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u8005\u306e\u610f\u898b\u4ea4\u63db\u5834\u3067\u3042\u308b[cross-validated](http://stats.stackexchange.com/)\u306b\uff0c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3084\u53ce\u675f\uff0cPyMC\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8cea\u554f\u3092\u6295\u7a3f\u3057\u3066\u307b\u3057\u3044\uff0e\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"**More questions about PyMC?**\n",
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"Please post your modeling, convergence, or any other PyMC question on [cross-validated](http://stats.stackexchange.com/), the statistics stack-exchange.\n",
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" \n",
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" \n",
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"Using the book\n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\n",
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"<!-- Using the book -->\n",
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"-------\n",
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"\n",
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"\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u8aad\u3080\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3044\u304f\u3064\u3082\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081\u306e\u9806\u306b\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u3088\u3046\uff0e\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"The book can be read in three different ways, starting from most recommended to least recommended: \n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"1. \u4e00\u756a\u306e\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081\u306f\uff0cgithub\u304b\u3089clone\u3057\u3066.ipynb\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb\u3092\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0eIPython\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3057\u3066\u3042\u308c\u3070\uff0c\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u30d6\u30e9\u30a6\u30b6\u3067\u8aad\u307f\u306a\u304c\u3089\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff08\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3082\u8a66\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff09\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u304c\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\u304c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u5b9f\u884c\u74b0\u5883\u3092\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u3059\u308b\uff0e \n",
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" - ipynb\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb\u3092\u8aad\u3080\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306fIPython 0.13\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0eIPython\u306f[\u3053\u3053](http://ipython.org/)\u304b\u3089\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e\n",
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" - Linux\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306e\u5834\u5408\uff0cNumpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, PyMC\u3092\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u7c21\u5358\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0eWindows\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306e\u5834\u5408\uff0c[\u30b3\u30f3\u30d1\u30a4\u30eb\u6e08\u307f\u30d0\u30a4\u30ca\u30ea](http://www.lfd.uci.edu/~gohlke/pythonlibs/)\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u7c21\u5358\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff0e\n",
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" - styles/ \u30c7\u30a3\u30ec\u30af\u30c8\u30ea\u306b\u306f\uff0c\u4fbf\u5229\u306a\u591a\u304f\u306e\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30eb(.matplotlirc)\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306f\u672c\u66f8\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u8a2d\u8a08\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\uff0cmatplotlib\u3068IPython notebook\u306e\u521d\u671f\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3092\u3082\u3063\u3068\u4f7f\u3044\u3084\u3059\u304f\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\n",
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" - \u5fc5\u9808\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304c\uff0cIPython notebook\u3092\u8d77\u52d5\u3059\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306b\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3`--pylab inline`\u3092\u3064\u3051\u308b\u3068\uff0c\u5b9f\u884c\u6642\u306e\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff0e\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"1. The most recommended option is to clone the repository to download the .ipynb files to your local machine. If you have IPython installed, you can view the \n",
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"chapters in your browser *plus* edit and run the code provided (and try some practice questions). This is the preferred option to read\n",
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"this book, though it comes with some dependencies. \n",
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" - IPython 0.13 is a requirement to view the ipynb files. It can be downloaded [here](http://ipython.org/)\n",
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" - For Linux users, you should not have a problem installing Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib and PyMC. For Windows users, check out [pre-compiled versions](http://www.lfd.uci.edu/~gohlke/pythonlibs/) if you have difficulty. \n",
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" - In the styles/ directory are a number of files (.matplotlirc) that used to make things pretty. These are not only designed for the book, but they offer many improvements over the default settings of matplotlib and the IPython notebook.\n",
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" - while technically not required, it may help to run the IPython notebook with `--pylab inline` if you encounter runtime errors.\n",
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"-->\n",
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"2. 2\u756a\u76ee\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\uff0c\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8nbviewer.ipython.org\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3066\uff0c\u30a6\u30a7\u30d6\u30d6\u30e9\u30a6\u30b6\u3067IPython nootebook\u3092\u898b\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\uff08[\u4f8b](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1_Introduction.ipynb)\uff09\n",
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"\u672c\u66f8\u304c\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3089\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u3082\u540c\u6642\u306b\u66f4\u65b0\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u4e0a\u306e\u76ee\u6b21\u304b\u3089\u5404\u7ae0\u3078\u30ea\u30f3\u30af\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"2. The second, preferred, option is to use the nbviewer.ipython.org site, which display IPython notebooks in the browser ([example](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1_Introduction.ipynb)).\n",
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"The contents are updated synchronously as commits are made to the book. You can use the Contents section above to link to the chapters.\n",
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"-->\n",
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"3. **PDF\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u307e\u3060\u306a\u3044\uff0e** PDF\u306f\u672c\u66f8\u3092\u8aad\u3080\u306b\u306f\u6700\u3082\u9069\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\uff0ePDF\u306f\u5bfe\u8a71\u7684\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3082\u3057PDF\u304c\u307b\u3057\u3044\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u30d6\u30e9\u30a6\u30b6\u306e\u6a5f\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u300cPDF\u3078\u5370\u5237\u300d\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3059\u308c\u3070\u3088\u3044\uff0e\n",
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"\n",
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"<!--\n",
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"3. **PDF versions are coming.** PDFs are the least-prefered method to read the book, as pdf's are static and non-interactive. If PDFs are desired, they can be created dynamically using Chrome's builtin print-to-pdf feature.\n",
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" \n",
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"-->\n",
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"\n",
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"Installation and configuration\n",
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"\u30a4\u30f3\u30b9\u30c8\u30fc\u30eb\u3068\u8a2d\u5b9a\n",
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"<!-- Installation and configuration -->\n",
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"------\n",
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"If you would like to run the IPython notebooks locally, (option 1. above), you'll need to install the following:\n",
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"\n",
@@ -337,13 +406,13 @@
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],
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"metadata": {},
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"output_type": "pyout",
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"prompt_number": 3,
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"prompt_number": 1,
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"text": [
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"<IPython.core.display.HTML at 0x105c15650>"
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"<IPython.core.display.HTML at 0x10363f510>"
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]
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}
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],
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"prompt_number": 3
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"prompt_number": 1
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{
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"language": "python",
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"prompt_number": 3
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"prompt_number": 1
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}
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],
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"metadata": {}

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