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@@ -37,38 +37,38 @@ See the project homepage [here](http://camdavidsonpilon.github.io/Probabilistic-
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The below chapters are rendered via the *nbviewer* at
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[nbviewer.ipython.org/](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/), and is read-only and rendered in real-time.
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[nbviewer.jupyter.org/](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/), and is read-only and rendered in real-time.
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Interactive notebooks + examples can be downloaded by cloning!
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### PyMC2
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*[**Prologue:**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb) Why we do it.
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*[**Prologue:**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb) Why we do it.
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*[**Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Ch1_Introduction_PyMC2.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Ch1_Introduction_PyMC2.ipynb)
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Introduction to the philosophy and practice of Bayesian methods and answering the question, "What is probabilistic programming?" Examples include:
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- Inferring human behaviour changes from text message rates
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*[**Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/Ch2_MorePyMC_PyMC2.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/Ch2_MorePyMC_PyMC2.ipynb)
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We explore modeling Bayesian problems using Python's PyMC library through examples. How do we create Bayesian models? Examples include:
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- Detecting the frequency of cheating students, while avoiding liars
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- Calculating probabilities of the Challenger space-shuttle disaster
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*[**Chapter 3: Opening the Black Box of MCMC**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/Ch3_IntroMCMC_PyMC2.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 3: Opening the Black Box of MCMC**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/Ch3_IntroMCMC_PyMC2.ipynb)
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We discuss how MCMC operates and diagnostic tools. Examples include:
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- Bayesian clustering with mixture models
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*[**Chapter 4: The Greatest Theorem Never Told**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/Ch4_LawOfLargeNumbers_PyMC2.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 4: The Greatest Theorem Never Told**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/Ch4_LawOfLargeNumbers_PyMC2.ipynb)
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We explore an incredibly useful, and dangerous, theorem: The Law of Large Numbers. Examples include:
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- Exploring a Kaggle dataset and the pitfalls of naive analysis
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- How to sort Reddit comments from best to worst (not as easy as you think)
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*[**Chapter 5: Would you rather lose an arm or a leg?**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter5_LossFunctions/Ch5_LossFunctions_PyMC2.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 5: Would you rather lose an arm or a leg?**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter5_LossFunctions/Ch5_LossFunctions_PyMC2.ipynb)
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The introduction of loss functions and their (awesome) use in Bayesian methods. Examples include:
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- Solving the *Price is Right*'s Showdown
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- Optimizing financial predictions
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- Winning solution to the Kaggle Dark World's competition
Probably the most important chapter. We draw on expert opinions to answer questions. Examples include:
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- Multi-Armed Bandits and the Bayesian Bandit solution.
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- What is the relationship between data sample size and prior?
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### PyMC3
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*[**Prologue:**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb) Why we do it.
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*[**Prologue:**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Prologue/Prologue.ipynb) Why we do it.
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*[**Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Ch1_Introduction_PyMC3.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Ch1_Introduction_PyMC3.ipynb)
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Introduction to the philosophy and practice of Bayesian methods and answering the question, "What is probabilistic programming?" Examples include:
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- Inferring human behaviour changes from text message rates
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*[**Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/Ch2_MorePyMC_PyMC3.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter2_MorePyMC/Ch2_MorePyMC_PyMC3.ipynb)
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We explore modeling Bayesian problems using Python's PyMC library through examples. How do we create Bayesian models? Examples include:
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- Detecting the frequency of cheating students, while avoiding liars
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- Calculating probabilities of the Challenger space-shuttle disaster
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*[**Chapter 3: Opening the Black Box of MCMC**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/Ch3_IntroMCMC_PyMC3.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 3: Opening the Black Box of MCMC**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter3_MCMC/Ch3_IntroMCMC_PyMC3.ipynb)
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We discuss how MCMC operates and diagnostic tools. Examples include:
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- Bayesian clustering with mixture models
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*[**Chapter 4: The Greatest Theorem Never Told**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/Ch4_LawOfLargeNumbers_PyMC3.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 4: The Greatest Theorem Never Told**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter4_TheGreatestTheoremNeverTold/Ch4_LawOfLargeNumbers_PyMC3.ipynb)
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We explore an incredibly useful, and dangerous, theorem: The Law of Large Numbers. Examples include:
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- Exploring a Kaggle dataset and the pitfalls of naive analysis
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- How to sort Reddit comments from best to worst (not as easy as you think)
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*[**Chapter 5: Would you rather lose an arm or a leg?**](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter5_LossFunctions/Ch5_LossFunctions_PyMC3.ipynb)
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*[**Chapter 5: Would you rather lose an arm or a leg?**](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter5_LossFunctions/Ch5_LossFunctions_PyMC3.ipynb)
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The introduction of loss functions and their (awesome) use in Bayesian methods. Examples include:
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- Solving the *Price is Right*'s Showdown
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- Optimizing financial predictions
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- Winning solution to the Kaggle Dark World's competition
Probably the most important chapter. We draw on expert opinions to answer questions. Examples include:
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- Multi-Armed Bandits and the Bayesian Bandit solution.
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- What is the relationship between data sample size and prior?
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The book can be read in three different ways, starting from most recommended to least recommended:
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1. The most recommended option is to clone the repository to download the .ipynb files to your local machine. If you have IPython installed, you can view the
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1. The most recommended option is to clone the repository to download the .ipynb files to your local machine. If you have Jupyter installed, you can view the
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chapters in your browser *plus* edit and run the code provided (and try some practice questions). This is the preferred option to read
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this book, though it comes with some dependencies.
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- IPython v2.0 (or greater) is a requirement to view the ipynb files. It can be downloaded [here](http://ipython.org/). IPython notebooks can be run by `(your-virtualenv) ~/path/to/the/book/Chapter1_Introduction $ ipython notebook`
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- Jupyter is a requirement to view the ipynb files. It can be downloaded [here](http://jupyter.org/). Jupyter notebooks can be run by `(your-virtualenv) ~/path/to/the/book/Chapter1_Introduction $ jupyter notebook`
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- For Linux users, you should not have a problem installing NumPy, SciPy, Matplotlib and PyMC. For Windows users, check out [pre-compiled versions](http://www.lfd.uci.edu/~gohlke/pythonlibs/) if you have difficulty.
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- In the styles/ directory are a number of files (.matplotlirc) that used to make things pretty. These are not only designed for the book, but they offer many improvements over the default settings of matplotlib.
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2. The second, preferred, option is to use the nbviewer.ipython.org site, which display IPython notebooks in the browser ([example](http://nbviewer.ipython.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1.ipynb)).
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2. The second, preferred, option is to use the nbviewer.jupyter.org site, which display Jupyter notebooks in the browser ([example](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/urls/raw.github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/Probabilistic-Programming-and-Bayesian-Methods-for-Hackers/master/Chapter1_Introduction/Chapter1.ipynb)).
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The contents are updated synchronously as commits are made to the book. You can use the Contents section above to link to the chapters.
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3. PDFs are the least-prefered method to read the book, as pdf's are static and non-interactive. If PDFs are desired, they can be created dynamically using the [nbconvert](https://github.com/ipython/nbconvert) utility.
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3. PDFs are the least-prefered method to read the book, as pdf's are static and non-interactive. If PDFs are desired, they can be created dynamically using the [nbconvert](https://github.com/jupyter/nbconvert) utility.
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Installation and configuration
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------
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If you would like to run the IPython notebooks locally, (option 1. above), you'll need to install the following:
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If you would like to run the Jupyter notebooks locally, (option 1. above), you'll need to install the following:
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-IPython 2.0+ is a requirement to view the ipynb files. It can be downloaded [here](http://ipython.org/ipython-doc/dev/install/index.html)
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-Jupyter is a requirement to view the ipynb files. It can be downloaded [here](http://jupyter.org/install.html)
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- Necessary packages are PyMC, NumPy, SciPy and Matplotlib.
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- For Linux/OSX users, you should not have a problem installing the above, [*except for Matplotlib on OSX*](http://www.penandpants.com/2012/02/24/install-python/).
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- For Windows users, check out [pre-compiled versions](http://www.lfd.uci.edu/~gohlke/pythonlibs/) if you have difficulty.
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- also recommended, for data-mining exercises, are [PRAW](https://github.com/praw-dev/praw) and [requests](https://github.com/kennethreitz/requests).
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- New to Python or IPython, and help with the namespaces? Check out [this answer](http://stackoverflow.com/questions/12987624/confusion-between-numpy-scipy-matplotlib-and-pylab).
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- New to Python or Jupyter, and help with the namespaces? Check out [this answer](http://stackoverflow.com/questions/12987624/confusion-between-numpy-scipy-matplotlib-and-pylab).
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- In the styles/ directory are a number of files that are customized for the notebook.
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These are not only designed for the book, but they offer many improvements over the
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default settings of matplotlib and the IPython notebook. The in notebook style has not been finalized yet.
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default settings of matplotlib and the Jupyter notebook. The in notebook style has not been finalized yet.
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- Giving better explanations
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- Spelling/grammar mistakes
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- Suggestions
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- Contributing to the IPython notebook styles
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- Contributing to the Jupyter notebook styles
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####Commiting
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Similarly, the book is only possible because of the [PyMC](http://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc) library. A big thanks to the core devs of PyMC: Chris Fonnesbeck, Anand Patil, David Huard and John Salvatier.
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One final thanks. This book was generated by IPython Notebook, a wonderful tool for developing in Python. We thank the IPython
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community for developing the Notebook interface. All IPython notebook files are available for download on the GitHub repository.
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One final thanks. This book was generated by Jupyter Notebook, a wonderful tool for developing in Python. We thank the IPython/Jupyter
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community for developing the Notebook interface. All Jupyter notebook files are available for download on the GitHub repository.
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